Whether the plaintiffs had Article III standing based on a claimed future risk that their communications would be acquired under §1881a.
Holding
No. The alleged interception was not certainly impending, and any asserted injury was not fairly traceable to §1881a.
Reasoning
Article III requires a plaintiff to show an injury that is concrete, particularized, actual or imminent, fairly traceable to the challenged conduct, and redressable by a favorable judgment. For a threatened future injury, the Court's usual rule is that the injury must be certainly impending; allegations of a merely possible future injury do not suffice. The Court rejected the Second Circuit's less demanding "objectively reasonable likelihood" standard as inconsistent with that requirement.
The plaintiffs' theory depended on a highly attenuated sequence of contingencies. The Government first would have to decide to target one of the plaintiffs' foreign contacts; choose §1881a rather than another surveillance authority; obtain FISC approval; successfully acquire the contact's communications; and incidentally acquire a particular communication involving a plaintiff. The plaintiffs offered no specific facts showing that this chain would occur.
The first link was especially speculative because §1881a does not permit the Government to target the plaintiffs themselves, who were U.S. persons. Their claim therefore rested on predictions about whether the Executive Branch would target foreign contacts. But the plaintiffs had no actual knowledge of the Government's targeting decisions, and §1881a authorizes surveillance without requiring it.
Even if foreign contacts were likely to be monitored, the plaintiffs could not show that §1881a would be the source of the surveillance. The Government retained other surveillance authorities, including traditional FISA procedures and other intelligence-gathering methods. That uncertainty independently defeated the requirement that the claimed injury be fairly traceable to §1881a.
The Court also declined to assume that the FISC would approve any hypothetical §1881a surveillance. Standing ordinarily cannot rest on speculation about how an independent decisionmaker will exercise judgment. Nor could the plaintiffs establish that the Government would successfully collect the contacts' communications or that the plaintiffs would participate in the particular communications collected.
The Court acknowledged that its cases do not always require literal certainty and sometimes recognize standing where a substantial risk prompts reasonable mitigation costs. But even under that formulation, the plaintiffs fell short because the predicted injury depended on too many uncertain decisions and events.