Whether a racial minority that makes up less than 50 percent of a proposed district’s voting-age population can satisfy the first Gingles precondition and compel the creation of a crossover district under § 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Holding
No. Absent intentional discrimination, a § 2 vote-dilution claimant must show that the minority group exceeds 50 percent of the voting-age population in a reasonably compact potential single-member district.
Reasoning
Section 2 protects equal political opportunity, including an equal opportunity to elect representatives of choice; it does not guarantee minority voters the best available opportunity to assemble a favorable political coalition. A minority group constituting only 39 percent of a district cannot elect a candidate by its own voting strength. It needs votes from other voters, and § 2 does not grant a special right to preserve or improve the group’s ability to attract those allies.
The Court read its Gingles precedent as establishing a majority-minority threshold. Gingles requires a minority group to be sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district, and that threshold shows the group could elect its preferred candidate in the absence of the challenged practice. Without that independent potential to elect, the Court concluded, there is no cognizable dilution injury and no judicial remedy.
A crossover-district theory also conflicts with the third Gingles precondition. That condition asks whether the majority usually votes as a bloc to defeat the minority’s preferred candidate. In a district that depends on substantial white crossover support to elect that candidate, it is difficult to reconcile the needed crossover voting with a finding that the white majority votes sufficiently as a bloc. Although the parties stipulated to bloc voting here, the tension confirmed that crossover claims do not fit the established Gingles framework.
The majority-minority rule supplies an objective and administrable line: courts can ask whether minority voters exceed 50 percent of the voting-age population in a potential district. A crossover rule, by contrast, would force courts to make uncertain predictions about future turnout, candidate appeal, incumbency, partisan alignment, and the durability of racial crossover voting in elections across the Nation.
The Court also invoked constitutional avoidance. Requiring crossover districts would substantially expand the occasions on which legislatures and courts would have to use race-based predictions in redistricting. Because that interpretation would raise serious Equal Protection concerns, the Court chose the plausible interpretation of § 2 that avoids unnecessarily injecting race into districting decisions.
The holding was limited. The Court did not decide how intentional discrimination would affect the Gingles analysis, and it stated that its majority-minority requirement does not apply to cases involving intentional discrimination against a racial minority. No intentional discrimination was alleged or proved in this case.