Whether the California Supreme Court's denial of Visciotti's ineffective-assistance claim was "contrary to" Strickland because it supposedly required him to prove that a different penalty verdict was more likely than not.
Holding
No. The California Supreme Court stated and applied Strickland's reasonable-probability standard, rather than a more demanding preponderance-of-the-evidence standard.
Reasoning
Strickland requires a defendant claiming ineffective assistance to show a reasonable probability that counsel's errors changed the result. A reasonable probability is one sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome; it does not require proof that a different result was more likely than not.
The California Supreme Court repeatedly identified the correct question: whether there was a reasonable probability that, absent counsel's errors, the sentencing authority would not have imposed death. It also relied on the formulation that the omitted evidence must undermine confidence in the penalty verdict, which is Strickland's own explanation of reasonable probability.
The Ninth Circuit treated several isolated uses of the word "probable," without the modifier "reasonably," as proof that the state court had adopted the wrong standard. That reading ignored the state court's repeated express citations to Strickland and its correct statements of the governing test. Occasional shorthand did not repudiate the rule the state court otherwise carefully described and applied.
Federal courts must presume that state courts know and follow the law, and AEDPA requires a highly deferential approach to state-court rulings. The Ninth Circuit did not give the California Supreme Court the benefit of that presumption or reconcile the isolated shorthand with the opinion's full analysis.