Whether Los Angeles could rely on its 1977 study of crime associated with concentrations of adult establishments to show that its ban on multiple adult businesses under one roof was designed to serve a substantial governmental interest under Renton.
Holding
Yes. At the summary-judgment stage, the City could reasonably rely on the study to support its theory that prohibiting multiple adult operations in one location serves the substantial interest in reducing crime.
Reasoning
Under Renton, a zoning regulation directed at the secondary effects of adult businesses receives intermediate scrutiny if it is a time, place, and manner regulation rather than a ban on protected expression. A city must show that the measure is designed to serve a substantial governmental interest and leaves reasonable alternative avenues of communication. Reducing crime is unquestionably a substantial governmental interest.
The 1977 Los Angeles study found that areas with high concentrations of adult establishments were associated with higher crime rates. Although the study examined separate establishments rather than multiple adult operations within one building, the City could reasonably infer that both arrangements create a similar concentration of adult-oriented operations, customers, and foot traffic. Like a minimall or department store, multiple operations at one site can attract a dense concentration of patrons and thereby attract or generate criminal activity.
The Ninth Circuit demanded too much by requiring the study to prove that the City's theory was the only possible explanation of the data. The study was also consistent with the court's alternative theory that the size or inventory of a business, rather than the number of operations, accounted for greater traffic. But Renton does not require a municipality to eliminate every competing interpretation or prove conclusively that its chosen solution is best.
A municipality's evidence must fairly support its rationale; it cannot rely on shoddy data or unsupported reasoning. Once the City offers evidence reasonably believed relevant to the asserted secondary effects, however, the challengers must cast direct doubt on the rationale by showing that the evidence does not support it or by offering evidence contradicting the City's factual premises. If they do so, the City must supplement the record. Here, the businesses argued only that the 1977 study did not necessarily prove the City's theory, which was insufficient to justify summary judgment against the City.
The Court also emphasized that municipalities need reasonable room to experiment with solutions to local secondary effects. A new regulatory approach may lack a perfect empirical comparison group precisely because the city has not tried it before. Requiring proof that the breakup of a combined bookstore-arcade would empirically lower crime before the City could act would improperly prevent such experimentation.