Whether counsel's conceded failure to raise an objection supported by then-existing circuit precedent establishes prejudice under Strickland when that precedent was later overruled and the objection is meritless under governing law.
Holding
No. A defendant does not establish Strickland prejudice merely by showing that counsel's error might have produced a different outcome through a legal ruling that current governing law recognizes as erroneous.
Reasoning
The Sixth Amendment right to effective counsel serves the larger purpose of ensuring a fair adversarial proceeding and a reliable result. Strickland therefore requires both deficient performance and prejudice: counsel's errors must be serious enough to deprive the defendant of a fair proceeding whose result is reliable.
A prejudice inquiry cannot consist solely of outcome speculation. An outcome that would have resulted only from arbitrariness, nullification, perjury, or another legal error is not an outcome to which the defendant has a constitutional entitlement. As the Court had explained in Nix v. Whiteside, a defendant has no right to the favorable luck of a lawless decisionmaker.
The Court treated the Eighth Circuit's later decision overruling Collins as correct. Under that premise, Fretwell was never substantively entitled to exclusion of the pecuniary-gain aggravator. Counsel's omission may have cost him a chance that the Arkansas trial court would mistakenly follow Collins, but it did not deprive him of a right the law ultimately recognized.
The Court distinguished the time-specific inquiry into deficient performance from the inquiry into prejudice. Assessing counsel's conduct as of the time of trial protects counsel's independence and avoids unfair second-guessing of strategic choices. Prejudice, by contrast, asks whether the error made the result unfair or unreliable; no such unfairness exists when the error denied only a favorable but legally incorrect ruling.